Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

World bank putting the fear of god into everyone

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

The latest economic forecast from the World Bank available here paints a pretty gloomy outlook for 2012.

Basically what they are saying is that the Eurozone issues could spark a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis. Economic growth has been massively revised downwards for 2012 and they are saying that the Eurozone is already in a recession.

Personally I have my doubts as to whether we will see a return to the same conditions sparked by the fall of Lehman Brothers. Back in 2008, nobody saw it coming. This time, people will have had plenty of forewarning. Major crises are usually sparked by something unexpected happening, if Greece defaults, is that really that unexpected?

Bear market blues? Rob Pretcher’s Latest…

Monday, May 31st, 2010

Please click on the below video to watch the latest update from Robert Pretcher….

Robert Pretcher from Elliot Wave International is known for his outspoken calls on the market. He’s been pretty bearish for the past couple of years, and called the top of the market in 2007. Last March 2009 he told people to “cover their shorts” which was a timely call as the market rallied from that point a 60% rally that lasted until last week when the Greek sovereign debt crisis hit. He was early in calling the top – last August – but what he has to say here is pretty interesting. If he’s right – then it’s a very bad time to be in stocks.

Have a look at his last call on the Market August 2009 which is very interesting to look back on in hindsight.

Is Pretcher correct? Is this the resumption of a bear market?
If you look back in hindsight – Pretcher’s call last August may have seemed very premature at the time – but the S&P500 as of today (31st May 2010)  is only up 5% from August 17th 2009 (when that video was published) and the NZ stockmarkt (NZ50) is actually 2.5% below where it was on August 17th 2009 and is at 9 month lows. So therefore in hindsight – anyone that had followed Pretcher’s advice and sold stocks then would not have missed out on much of a gain. The market since August 2009 has really struggled to make any significant headway.

But that does not necessarily mean that we are going into another bear market. The overall trend is still up but it is very choppy trading. As I said in my previous post – this is a trader’s market, not a buy-and-hold (or buy-and-hope) market.


What remains to be seen is whether the stockmarket can bounce back from the recent problems with Greece and the PIIGS economies in Europe. In my opinion the emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil, are much more important to a global recovery than Europe. If there was a significant slowdown in these emerging markets, then we would be in danger of another vicious bear market. In the meantime – I am cautiously optimistic, that this is a correction in the uptrend and not the resumption of the bear market.

NZ dollar hits upper channel line .. will it push through?

Friday, April 30th, 2010

The New Zealand dollar has today hit up against the upper edge of the downwards trending channel that it has been stuck in since October 2009. With NZ commodity prices at an all time high and the Australian economy in full swing one would have to argue that the case for a strong NZ dollar is a good one. If the NZ dollar can push through the upper channel line then it will rise to challenge the 75c mark which is the high from October 2009. There is a more in-depth article here by Roger Kerr on the prospects for the NZ dollar which also discusses what could happen if rates rise in the USA.

New Zealand Dollar downwards trending channel vs USD

New Zealand Dollar downwards trending channel vs USD

What 2010 will bring for the markets…

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

2009 – The Year in hindsight

2009 was quite a year for the markets. A 60% stockmarket rally off the S&P500 March lows, and a similar rally (50%) in the New Zealand dollar of the March lows against the US dollar. Staggering changes, in hindsight we could all be saying “if only I’d bought in March I’d be ‘rich’ by now”, but then we will probably all look back at the end of 2010 and say the same thing, although it could be about something entirely different.

The question for both these markets, is, having come so far so fast.. can they go much higher? With so much government manipulation through quantitative easing it’s very hard to say as the markets are not acting in any ‘rational’ fashion, although some would say that the markets are made up of human beings so therefore rationality can hardly be expected. It is more the herd mentality that takes over and drives the markets to extremes in both directions.

2010 – What to expect?

The markets in the last few months have been very highly un-volatile. So by that token by the law of averages we can expect that we will be in for higher volatility going forward, simply as it cannot go much lower (in terms of volatility).

I’m going to stick my neck out and make some predictions – these are based on my beliefs which are based on the analysis I have done myself, I don’t have enough time to go into the analysis in details but here are my predictions for 2010!

  1. The Stockmarket is overbought, and due a correction of 10-20%. I’d say it has about another 15% of upside potential from its current levels but no more than that – based on the unusually high P/E ratio of the market in general, and the fact that it has come so far so fast (the rubber band effect).
  2. The NZD/USD will struggle to extend past 75c, and if there is a stockmarket correction, will test the 60c level. It is highly unlikely to extend more than 80c (against the USD), unless there is some major meltdown of the USD which I highly doubt, despite all the doomsday theorists’ predictions of a USD collapse.

In the meantime – I am going to ride the prevailing trend in either direction until I see meaningful signs of a change in the wind. If 2009 taught me anything – it’s that the markets can rally or fall much further than one would think despite any ‘rational’ reason why they shouldn’t do so. In either case it’s better to be on the side of the prevailing trend, even if the reasons why are not obvious at the time.

Let’s see what 2010 brings! And good luck!

Peter Waring

Kiwi dollar now as strong as the Pound ….

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

The (formerly) ‘Great’ Ship Britannia has sprung a leak….

The Kiwi dollar hit a 25 year high last week against the British Pound just above the 0.46 mark. At a rate of 0.46 (converting Kiwi dollars to Pounds) the New Zealand dollar Purchasing Power Parity is now basically the same as the Great British Pound. As I’m about to show you – this means that KIWIS RIGHT NOW EARN JUST AS MUCH MONEY ON AVERAGE AS THE BRITISH DO!! Yes the almighty £ is mighty no more it may seem, or at least for the time being!

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory says that the same product should cost the same amount in two currencies based on converting one currency to the other at the existing exchange rate. While tradtionally we know that some currencies persistently outperform others, the theory provides a useful benchmark for comparing how wealthy a nation is, based on the strength of its currency.

The Big Mac Index – how does the Kiwi dollar stack up vs the £?:

The Big Mac index compares the price of a Big Mac in one country compared to another, converts to the USD as a benchmark, and gives a measure of how overvalued/undervalued each currency is. A Big Mac in New Zealand costs NZD $4.90, and in Britian costs £2.29. Convert £2.29 to NZD at a rate of 0.46 and you get NZD $4.97 – which is what the British Big Mac would cost if converted to Kiwi dollars. That’s a paltry 1.4% difference, so for all intents and purposes, based on Big Mac (PPP) theory, the strength of our currencies are relatively equal.  Check it out here

What about the earning power of the individual?

So what about incomes? Surely it’s not just the cost of the same goods in each country that counts if people in one country earn way more than the other, right? Correct: To adequately compare wealth we need to look at what people in each country earn, as this gives a measure of the affordability and purchasing power of the individual. I did some research online, and found the website PayScale to be very useful – it gives median salaries in different countries for different professions: I took 2 jobs (Personal Assistant and Software Developer) in both Britain and New Zealand and compared them. Here are the results:

Personal Assistant Average Wage:
New Zealand: $44,767 ($35, 784 after tax)
United Kingdom: £22,295 ( £17,307 after tax)
Difference: NZ P/A’s earn 4.9% less than in the UK

Software Developer Average Wages:
New Zealand: $52,251 ($41,064 after tax)
United Kingdom: £27,613 (£20,976 after tax)
Difference: NZ developer wages 9.95% less than in the UK

OK so 4-10% is not much less to earn in NZ considering you pay about £500/month (NZD $253 a week) for a room in a shared flat in London, not big enough to swing a cat in (I know this as I’ve just been there!). For the same money in Auckland you’d be living in the lap of luxury, probably in a huge room in a house on the edge of Lake Pupuke or something similar. There are other things we could compare, like food and energy costs, but the point is that basically right now based on current NZD/GBP rates NZ’ers are just as wealthy as their English Speaking European counterparts. That’s quite a feat for a country of 4 million with a commodity based export economy, and relatively little global political influence.

How long will the good times last for?

The Kiwi dollar has been on a winning streak and the Pound and US dollar on a big losing streak since the sharemarket really took off in March 2009. I have read dozens of articles and they seem to be split halfway between “the US dollar and Pound are oversold” and “the US dollar and Pound are on the verge of an imminent collapse”. Both arguments have valid evidence to back them up so who do you believe?

In my (humble) opinion, eventually the Pound will recover simply due to the enviable gateway that Britain is to Europe as an English-speaking country and its close ties with the USA. So right now a pretty good ‘punt’ would be to buy some Pounds, and hold them. But that’s my opnion. In the meantime, New Zealanders, enjoy your wonderful country with its clean air, sunshine, oncoming summer, and strong currency. Let the good times roll! :-)